What are our choices?

In southern Australia the climate is drying. We are already seeing ecosystems on the edge. In this situation do environmental researchers work only to document change and bear witness to loss? Or can we identify and support choices that can slow change, reduce its impact, and protect the ecosystems we love from the overwhelming challenge of a changing rainfall regime?

I am obsessed with this question. It took four years, but - with the help of fantastic co-authors Caitlin Moore, Qiaoyun Xie, Gavan McGrath, Katinka Ruthrof and Jaume Ruscadella-Alvarez - our recent paper "Ecohydrological adaptation: A research and management framework for ecosystems in Australia’s drying and warming climate" says yes, we have choices - and explores what they are.

We outline hierarchy of ecohydrological adaption measures, ranging from the lowest cost ("do nothing"), to the most resource intensive ("relocate species or ecosystems"). But it's the ones in between I think are exciting -

Identify and conserve refugia: Where are the places that aren't going to dry out? Or that dry out less, or more slowly than other places? We need to find them and protect them. This is relatively low risk as it only requires us to adjust current conservation planning to incorporate awareness of likely climate change consequences - a movement that is already underway.

Reduce water demand by managing ecosystems: Some ecosystems will be more resilient to a drying climate if their current structure and composition is adjusted. Can we adjust the provenancing of species for restoration/rehabilitation to increase their adaptations for warmer, drier conditions? Is ecological thinning likely to enable forests to thrive even as the climate dries? Where do these strategies have a good chance of success? Or, from a risk management point of view, which areas are likely to struggle already, so that interventions do not risk high value, low-vulnerability ecosystems?

Blue enamel orchids

Reduce the rate/amount of hydrological change by managing hydrology: There are many places where natural hydrology has been profoundly altered, often in ways that - intentionally or otherwise - dry out ecosystems. These changes can be reversed, and landscapes rehydrated. Alternatively new hydrological interventions - ranging from pumping away saline groundwater, lining wetlands to reduce water loss or water transfers to high value ecosystems - can buffer important areas from change. Cities are critical places for these kinds of changes because we can incorporate ecosystems into a landscape where supplying additional water (e.g. irrigation, stormwater/groundwater management) provides a broad range of wellbeing as well as conservation benefits.

There is a lot we don't know about how to manage our ecosystems through periods of change, but our responsibility is huge. Here in WA, we have 10,000 endemic species. Botanists argue that in the south west, these species may represent the most specialised ("highly evolved" if you like) plant species in the world. Let's not document their decline - let's learn how we can best support them to persist and thrive as much as possible even as the world changes.